Projected outbound trips
170M
Modeled mainland outbound trips for the next planning cycle
Market Outlook
A 12-month commercial outlook for China outbound travel. Use it to spot where demand, spend, and travel-retail value are likely to concentrate across priority destinations in the next planning cycle.
Built for destination teams, travel marketers, retail planners, airline partners, and brand teams making near-term budget and market-priority decisions.
Default scenario
Base
Market coverage
13 destination markets
Forecast basis
Proprietary forecast model
Best used for
Near-term planning and destination prioritization
Projected outbound spend
$263.5B
In-destination spend excluding international airfare
Blended spend per traveler
$1,550
Modeled traveler spend basis across the forecast year
Destination markets covered
13
Named destination markets and grouped regional buckets
Travel-retail linked share
3.3%
Share of modeled spend linked to travel-retail shopping opportunity
What matters in the next 12 months
A quick read for teams deciding where to focus spend, partnerships, and destination effort over the next planning cycle.
Volume will not be evenly distributed
The near-term opportunity is likely to cluster around a limited set of destinations rather than spread evenly across the market.
Spend concentration matters more than raw arrivals
The best commercial markets are not always the biggest by volume. Spend intensity and shopping-linked value change the ranking.
Travel-retail leaders deserve separate planning attention
Some destinations over-index on shopping and travel-retail capture, making them commercially stronger than arrivals alone suggest.
How the next 12 months could play out
Switch between the key commercial metrics to compare low, base, and high outcomes side by side for the next planning cycle.
Current readout
Why it matters
Use the scenario spread to frame how aggressively to plan spend, partnerships, and destination focus over the next 12 months.
Where destination opportunity ranks highest
Use the ranked view to scan the strongest markets before dropping into the table for exact values and market-by-market comparison.
Why it matters
This chart is the fastest way to spot whether your next planning conversation should start with demand volume, total spend, retail value, or spend concentration.
Which destinations look strongest
Search, sort, and compare destinations by projected arrivals, spend, and travel-retail value. Click a market to see why it ranks where it does and what it means commercially.
| France | 2.2 | 16.8 | 0.6 | 6.4% |
| United States | 1.9 | 16.1 | 0.3 | 6.1% |
| Hong Kong | 39.0 | 12.1 | 1.3 | 4.6% |
| South Korea | 6.5 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.5% |
| Japan | 4.6 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 3.3% |
| Macao | 30.0 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 3.2% |
| Vietnam | 6.1 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 2.8% |
| Thailand | 6.2 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 2.8% |
| Malaysia | 5.2 | 6.9 | 0.3 | 2.6% |
| Singapore | 3.4 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 2.0% |
| Australia | 1.1 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 1.8% |
| United Kingdom | 1.0 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 1.5% |
Where shopping and travel-retail value concentrate
Shopping-linked value is concentrated in a smaller set of markets than raw volume suggests. Use this view to spot where retail and partnership upside is strongest.
Why it matters
Markets that over-index on shopping-linked value deserve a different retail and partnership strategy than markets that are strong on arrivals alone.
What is driving each destination outlook
Each destination combines demand scale, stay pattern, and spend intensity differently. Use this panel to understand what is making a market commercially attractive.
Methodology
Methodology and assumptions
This forecast is designed to support planning conversations. It is scenario-based, updated when the annual model is revised, and intended as a decision tool rather than a live reporting surface.
- This page presents a scenario-based annual forecast, not observed live performance.
- Scenario outputs are anchored on modeled trip volume and spend-per-trip assumptions for FY2026.
- Destination opportunity values are derived from destination parameters, category spend assumptions, and travel-retail share inputs.
Exclusions
- Spend is in-destination spend and excludes international airfare.
- Destination rows are modeled outputs rather than live booking or visitation counts.
What commercial teams should do with this
Translate the forecast into more practical planning choices across destinations, budgets, and partnerships.
Destination prioritization
Use projected spend first, not arrivals alone, to decide which destinations deserve near-term campaign focus and partner energy.
Budget planning
Shift more spend toward markets where demand scale and spend-per-traveler combine, especially where public benchmarks confirm the commercial case.
Retail and partnership focus
Treat shopping-linked markets as separate commercial priorities for retail, aviation, and destination partnership planning.
Next step
Need the forecast shaped around your priority markets?
We can adapt the forecast view around your destination mix, category priorities, travel-retail focus, or near-term planning cycle.