01
National Immigration Administration · actual
88.023MH1 2026. Mainland-resident outbound exits (person-times); not unique travellers or completed trips.
View NIA source ↗China outbound travel · FY2026 · August 2026 update
China outbound travel keeps growing, but the 2026 upside has narrowed.
H1 border exits and travel spending now anchor the FY2026 Base case at 179.3M outbound trips and US$257.6B in-destination spend. The revision is mainly volume-led: spend per trip is almost unchanged.
Since JuneThe outlook tightened, not reset.
H1 data trims the 2026 outlook. The market still points to year-on-year growth.
Base trips−4.7M−2.6% vs June
Base spend−7.1B−2.7% vs June
Spend / trip−2.0US$1,437 current
CTD view
What the revision means
China outbound travel remains on a growth path, although the second half is unlikely to produce the broad-based acceleration implied by the previous outlook. The H1 evidence points to a more selective market: travellers are still moving, but destinations and categories are competing for a more measured wallet.
Nearby markets continue to carry the majority of trip volume. Europe and North America remain disproportionately important for expenditure, while South Korea is benefiting from disruption affecting Japan. Retail opportunity is also becoming more concentrated. The strongest markets are those combining travel recovery with high shopping intensity, strong air access and a clear reason for Chinese travellers to spend.
For marketers, the size of the outbound market is becoming less useful as a planning signal on its own. Market selection, traveller value and conversion readiness now matter more.
The evidence layer
Three data layers anchor the outlook.
National data anchors the market forecast. Destination trends and forward signals show where H2 demand and spending are most likely to concentrate.
02
State Administration of Foreign Exchange · preliminary
US$122.3BJune 2026. China Balance of Payments travel debit; used as the outbound-spend control.
View SAFE source ↗03
Forward validation · directional
July signalsJuly UnionPay / reviewed VariFlight signals. Directional inputs refine the H2 allocation; they are not arrivals or spend observations.
UnionPay · VariFlightCommercial implications
What changes for the planning conversation.
Select a scenario to see how the outlook changes. The largest traveller markets are not always the most valuable ones.
Base-case trips versus the June published outlook; spend per trip is broadly stable.
Greater China and Southeast Asia account for most outbound trips. Destinations outside Asia need a sharper reason to travel, stronger air access and clearer value communication.
The Base case contains US$67.4B in shopping expenditure. South Korea, Macao, Hong Kong, France and the United States offer very different combinations of volume, traveller value and travel-retail exposure.
The difference between the Low and High cases is largely driven by whether forward capacity, discretionary confidence and current travel disruption convert into actual departures.
The shape of growth
More movement, a more measured wallet.
Historical values are shown as context; the selected 2026 case is a forecast, not a historical observation.
Trip proxy · MHistorical Forecast
Historical trip proxy: NIA mainland-resident entries/exits divided by two; a crossing proxy, not unique travellers. The 2026 bar uses the selected scenario forecast.
Opportunity map
Where spending is concentrated.
Both panels compare spend. The regional view adds trip volume as context, so you can separate market scale from traveller value.
Category wallet
US$B · shareSpend beyond the ticket.
Accommodation31.5%
US$81.3B
Food & Beverage18.7%
US$48.3B
Local Transport14.5%
US$37.2B
Entertainment & Services9.1%
US$23.4B
Shopping - Travel Retail7.5%
US$19.2B
Shopping - Non Travel Retail18.7%
US$48.2B
Bar length shows spend relative to the largest category. The percentage shows each category's share of the wallet.
Regional opportunity
US$B · tripsValue is not volume.
Europe27.0M trips
US$92.4B
SEA39.2M trips
US$54.6B
Greater China86.8M trips
US$38.7B
North Asia14.0M trips
US$26.8B
North America2.3M trips
US$18.2B
Latin America & Caribbean3.8M trips
US$10.4B
Middle East3.7M trips
US$8.3B
Oceania1.3M trips
US$5.4B
Other1.2M trips
US$2.9B
Bars show regional spend; trip counts show the volume pool behind each market. Greater China is the largest volume pool, while Europe is the largest spend pool.
Market divergence
The recovery is producing three different market opportunities.
See how the opportunity differs across market groups, then explore the destinations most relevant to your business.
Capture more of each trip.
Hong Kong, Macao, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore offer substantial traveller flow. Competition is high, and the commercial challenge is capturing a larger share of each trip.
Win the premium itinerary.
France, the United States, Italy, Germany, Australia and the United Kingdom attract fewer travellers but substantially more spend per visitor. These markets depend more heavily on premium travel confidence, air access and itinerary planning.
Monitor demand as it moves.
Japan, South Korea and parts of the Middle East illustrate how quickly demand can move when air capacity, travel sentiment or geopolitical conditions change. These markets require more frequent monitoring than annual planning alone provides.
Named destination explorer
Find the market behind the number.
Search, filter and sort the 27 named destinations. Forecast confidence and arrival observation status are separate signals by design.
Latest destination evidence, not FY2026 forecast trips.
Each row keeps its own observation period visible.
Allocated to destinations and reconciled to the national SAFE control.
| Market | Region | FY2026 trips | FY2026 spend | Spend / visitor |
|---|
Shopping and travel retail
Retail-heavy markets need their own plan.
Ranked by shopping spend, not arrival volume. A high travel-retail share can still sit inside a smaller total opportunity.
| Rank | Market | Region | Shopping spend | Travel retail | TR share |
|---|
Coverage disclosure
Named markets tell most of the story — not all of it.
Global and regional totals include residual pools; the destination table shows named destinations only.
Read the methodology
What the numbers mean — and what they do not.
Open notes +
Controls and treatment
- National controls use NIA outbound exits and SAFE travel debit through the periods supplied by the release.
- Destination arrival evidence is shown with its own period and definition; it is not the FY2026 forecast-trip total.
- Destination spend is a modeled allocation reconciled to the national SAFE travel-debit control. A spend source appears only where the dataset supplies one.
- UnionPay and VariFlight are directional validation inputs, not direct forecast controls.
- Forecast confidence and arrival observation status describe different things and remain separate in the interface.
Coverage and boundaries
- Global and regional totals include residual reconciliation pools; the destination explorer shows named destinations only.
- Destination evidence has mixed freshness — H1, June, May, Q1 and other periods are kept visible per market.
- Values are displayed at publication precision. Derived shares are rounded to one decimal place.
- Spend means in-destination traveller spend excluding international airfare.
- Latin America & Caribbean is the authoritative regional label and remains separate from North America.
Research cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Forecast updated: 2026-08-03
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