Projected outbound trips
170M
Modeled mainland outbound trips for the next planning cycle
Market Outlook Archive
The earlier March 2026 annual outlook for China outbound travel, retained as an archived reference for teams comparing model iterations.
This archived page uses the prior summary-led model. The latest market outlook now lives at /intelligence/market-outlook.
Default scenario
Base
Market coverage
13 destination markets
Forecast basis
Proprietary forecast model
Best used for
Near-term planning and destination prioritization
Projected outbound spend
$263.5B
In-destination spend excluding international airfare
Blended spend per traveler
$1,550
Modeled traveler spend basis across the forecast year
Destination markets covered
13
Named destination markets and grouped regional buckets
Travel-retail linked share
3.3%
Share of modeled spend linked to travel-retail shopping opportunity
What mattered in the prior model
A quick read for teams deciding where to focus spend, partnerships, and destination effort over the next planning cycle.
Volume was scenario-led
The earlier view centered on low, base, and high annual trip assumptions rather than Q1 actuals.
Destination rankings were commercially useful
The prior table remains helpful for broad comparison, though it has less source-quality and risk-overlay detail.
Use this as a reference only
For current planning, use the latest Q1-anchored model with risk-adjusted outputs.
How the March model framed FY2026
Compare the older low, base, and high outcomes from the prior annual model.
Current readout
Why it matters
Use the scenario spread to frame how aggressively to plan spend, partnerships, and destination focus over the next 12 months.
Where destination opportunity ranks highest
Use the ranked view to scan the strongest markets before dropping into the table for exact values and market-by-market comparison.
Why it matters
This chart is the fastest way to spot whether your next planning conversation should start with demand volume, total spend, retail value, or spend concentration.
Prior destination ranking
Search, sort, and compare destinations using the archived model output.
| France | 2.2 | 16.8 | 0.6 | 6.4% |
| United States | 1.9 | 16.1 | 0.3 | 6.1% |
| Hong Kong | 39.0 | 12.1 | 1.3 | 4.6% |
| South Korea | 6.5 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.5% |
| Japan | 4.6 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 3.3% |
| Macao | 30.0 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 3.2% |
| Vietnam | 6.1 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 2.8% |
| Thailand | 6.2 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 2.8% |
| Malaysia | 5.2 | 6.9 | 0.3 | 2.6% |
| Singapore | 3.4 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 2.0% |
| Australia | 1.1 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 1.8% |
| United Kingdom | 1.0 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 1.5% |
Archived shopping and travel-retail concentration
The earlier retail view is preserved for comparison against the newer risk-adjusted model.
Why it matters
Markets that over-index on shopping-linked value deserve a different retail and partnership strategy than markets that are strong on arrivals alone.
What drove the archived destination outlook
The earlier model combined demand scale, stay pattern, and spend intensity by destination.
Methodology
Archived methodology and assumptions
This archived model is retained for continuity. It is scenario-based and less granular than the current Q1-anchored market outlook.
- This page presents a scenario-based annual forecast, not observed live performance.
- Scenario outputs are anchored on modeled trip volume and spend-per-trip assumptions for FY2026.
- Destination opportunity values are derived from destination parameters, category spend assumptions, and travel-retail share inputs.
What this forecast does not include
- Spend is in-destination spend and excludes international airfare.
- Destination rows are modeled outputs rather than live booking or visitation counts.
How to interpret this archive
Translate the forecast into more practical planning choices across destinations, budgets, and partnerships.
Version comparison
Use this page to compare the earlier model logic with the latest Q1-anchored outlook.
Do not use as the current forecast
The March model does not include the full Q1 controls, source-quality scoring, or May risk overlays.
Current planning
Use the latest page for active destination, retail, airline, and budget planning conversations.
Next step
Use the latest market outlook
The current model includes Q1 actuals, source confidence, risk-adjusted outputs, and expanded methodology.